What impact do interest rates have on the housing market?
Want to know how rising interest rates can shred home affordability — and what to do about it? Read this.
The short answer
Interest rates drive mortgage costs. When rates rise, monthly payments climb. That reduces how much buyers can afford. Less buyer demand usually lowers home prices or slows price growth. When rates fall, payments drop, demand rises, and prices often go up.
Why interest rates matter to the housing market
- Mortgage rates set borrowing cost. Higher mortgage rates = higher monthly payments.
- Affordability changes fast. A 1% rate rise can cut buying power by 10–15%.
- Demand shifts. Higher rates push marginal buyers out of the market. Lower rates bring them back.
- Inventory and price reaction lag. Sellers often wait to list, creating short-term supply constraints or sudden supply surges when confidence returns.
Clear signals buyers and sellers must watch
- Central bank moves (e.g., Bank of Canada) and inflation data
- 10-year government bond yields — markets peg mortgage rates to these
- Lender spreads and mortgage rules — tighter lending amplifies rate moves
- Local sales volume and days on market — early signs of shifting demand
Actionable steps for buyers (do this now)
- Calculate real affordability. Use amortization and payment calculators with current rates.
- Fix your rate if you want certainty. Lock when rates are favorable for your budget.
- Stretch budget cautiously. Don’t max out based on optimistic future rate drops.
- Consider adjustable-rate mortgage if planning to sell or refinance in 3–5 years.
- Get pre-approved. It preserves buying power and credibility.
Actionable steps for sellers (do this now)
- Price for the market climate, not for your wish list. Buyers are rate-sensitive.
- Increase buyer appeal: staging, professional photos, rapid showings.
- Buy-sell timing: if you must buy after selling, account for higher mortgage costs.
- Offer seller incentives like flexible closing or contribution to buyers’ rate buydown.
How investors should respond
- Focus on cash flow and cap rates, not just appreciation.
- Higher rates can mean better returns on fixed-income alternatives — be selective.
Quick checklist for agents and lenders
- Monitor rate trends and communicate weekly updates.
- Use local comps with similar rate environments.
- Teach clients how rate changes affect monthly payments, not just sale price.
Key takeaways
- Interest rates change demand, affordability, and pricing speed.
- Small rate moves have outsized effects on buyer power.
- Act with a plan: lock, price, or stage based on your goal.
Tony Sousa is a leading local market expert. For personalized strategy or a rate-driven pricing plan, contact Tony at tony@sousasells.ca or call 416-477-2620. Visit https://www.sousasells.ca for market reports and listings.
